Nifty Weekly Analysis for WS 10th March

The past week saw Nifty scaling new highs with a lot of experts terming it as a Pre Election rally. The market is closely watching the political developments and every pre election poll shows the NDA getting closer to the magic figure of 272. That is certainly boosting sentiments. The IT and Pharma space is seeing some profit booking happen. Imagine where the Nifty can go to if they too join the party.

The thrust on last Friday has come on good volumes backed by FII buying which is the key point here. Nifty has convincingly cleared a major roadblock at 6355 which it had failed to do so the last 4 times. 5th time lucky I guess. Move towards 6589 and beyond cannot be ruled out. On the lower end 6355 will provide good support level. If it holds and bounces up we can see higher levels in Nifty.

The Daily and Weekly charts are looking very Bullish for Nifty.

As usual, the market will decide it’s course of action. All we need to do is follow what it does.

Nifty Weekly WS 10th March

Nifty trading levels for this week are as follows

Buy Above 6426 Tgt 1 – 6640, Tgt 2 – 6750, Tgt 3 – 6965

Sell Below 6426 Tgt 1 – 6313, Tgt 2 – 6100, Tgt 3 – 5990

Note: All levels are for Nifty Spot. Kindly adjust the same for Futures.

Very Important – DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. Use sound Money Management with your Trading Plan and do not over leverage vis-a-vis your trading equity.

Have a Profitable Trading week ahead!

To your Boring Success!!!

Nifty Weekly Analysis for WS 17th Feb

This past week ended with that last hour short covering on Friday. I am told the shorts covered due to the vote of account on Monday and maybe that a positive surprised awaited them from the FM. As far as I a concerned the VoA is just a discourse on the achievements of the Govt with an eye on the 2014 General Elections.

As a disclaimer, I am holding shorts in Nifty Futures and have added to them in the dying moments of trade on Friday. Again I am happy to cover my position and go long if the market proves me wrong. Another thing which worries me about this pullback is that the Volumes have only gone lower since the pull back started. As a trader you want to see pull backs or trend changes supported by heavy volumes which then gives you conviction to cover your shorts. Unfortunately the past shows that any pullbacks devoid of volumes only take the market lower.

For this week, 6100 is a crucial level where traders will look to short the Nifty. What is required is a flurry of good news which can take this market back to the Top. Sadly even the US markets have pulled back on decreasing volumes which sort of gives me conviction on my shorts. That is a different matter though.

If 6100 is crossed, 6150 would be the next point of resistance which would be certainly see some selling pressure come in. Also if the US markets were to start falling we could see huge downturn here as well. As I have mentioned in last weeks analysis as well, a strong close above 6200 – 6250 levels and we can start looking beyond 6300 levels.

As seen on the Daily chart, Nifty had taken support at the trendline and has formed a Bullish Harami Pattern on Friday’s close. Some upmove cannot be ruled out on Monday but I fear it will get sold into, particularly if the FM makes any statement which the market does not want to hear.

On the downside the 200 DMA is providing support to Nifty around the 5970-5980 levels since the last 8 trading sessions. Any break and close below that and we would be staring at 5850 and then at 5750 levels.

Nifty is bearish on the Weekly and Monthly charts.

As usual, the market will decide it’s course of action. All we need to do is follow what it does.

Nifty Weekly WS 17th Feb

Nifty trading levels for the next week are as follows

Buy Above 6047 Tgt 1 – 6110, Tgt 2 – 6170, Tgt 3 – 6230

Sell Below 6047 Tgt 1 – 5986, Tgt 2 – 5925, Tgt 3 – 5864

Note: All levels are for Nifty Spot. Kindly adjust the same for Futures.

Very Important – DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. Use sound Money Management with your Trading Plan and do not over leverage vis-a-vis your trading equity.

Have a Profitable Trading week ahead!

To your Boring Success!!!

Nifty Weekly Analysis for WS 10th Feb

The Nifty pretty much Mirrored the US markets moves this past week. Nifty has formed a long legged Doji on the weekly charts which basically signals indecision among the Bulls and the Bears. And quite rightly so too. I think a lot would depend on how the US market plays out the QE tapering story and the possible effects of the taper. The Fed is down to a $65 billion buying program now.

It won’t be wrong to say that the Bears are waiting for a decent pull back to get back into action. 5940 – 5950 is a level to watch out for as I mentioned in my last post. The last week saw buying strength emerge at these levels. Bulls look to be holding this level for the time being at least. I for one have not traded Nifty at all the past week. I would like to get some strong upside or downside to get in the move. As usual I am waiting on the sidelines with loads of patience and discipline.

On the upside a close above 6200 would give the Bulls enough momentum to strike 6300+. I would imagine some strong global cues are needed for that to happen.

Nifty Weekly WS 10th Feb

Nifty trading levels for the next week are as follows

Buy Above 6025 Tgt 1 – 6118, Tgt 2 – 6172, Tgt 3 – 6264

Sell Below 6025 Tgt 1 – 5970, Tgt 2 – 5880, Tgt 3 – 5825

Note: All levels are for Nifty Spot. Kindly adjust the same for Futures.

Very Important – DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. Use sound Money Management with your Trading Plan and do not over leverage vis-a-vis your trading equity.

Have a Profitable Trading week ahead!

To your Boring Success!!!

Nifty Weekly Analysis for WS 3rd Feb

My apologies for not posting last week’s Nifty Analysis.

Last week started on a bad note as Nifty had a gap down opening and was not able to fill the gap throughout the week. Nifty had formed a shooting star pattern close to the highs in the preceding week so this fall does not surprise me. Also there are a lot of other factors at play for this decline. As much as India purists would say India is fairly insulated from the QE taper, I beg to differ. My contention is that if the US economy has started to show signs of improvement much of the money invested in Emerging markets like India would find it’s way back to the US. Not that I am bullish on the US markets in any way.

I had tweeted few days back that we could see a decline in major US and European markets and I maintain my stand. There could definitely be a pull back rally but that should be used as an opportunity to short the market at best. The US market is akin to a “Druggie” who has been systematically drugged for the last 6 odd years. And what happens when the Druggie doesn’t get his quota of drugs??? That’s what will happen to the US markets.

Anyways back to the Nifty now. Nifty has formed a Bearish Engulfing pattern close to the Resistance on the Monthly charts. Ominous signs these for shorters. I would be particularly interested in 5972 as it is the Nov low. Nifty took out the Dec low of 6130 easily and closed the month at 6089. A weekly close below 5972 would certainly be bearish in the medium term for Nifty and we can look at levels of 5700 also. At this point this thought is slightly far fetched though, but if World markets go down spirally, 5700 could arrive sooner than later.

On the brighter side a close above 6250 and we could be eying the 6350 – 6400 levels again.

I think we should see some sort of buying support in the 5945 – 6000 zone if the Nifty happens to go down. Folks who have shorted Nifty at higher levels can look at 5950 as a profit booking area.

As usual, the market will decide it’s course of action. All we need to do is follow what it does.

Nifty Monthly Feb 13

Nifty trading levels for the next week are as follows

Buy Above 6102 Tgt 1 – 6176, Tgt 2 – 6263, Tgt 3 – 6338

Sell Below 6102 Tgt 1 – 6015, Tgt 2 – 5940, Tgt 3 – 5854

Note: All levels are for Nifty Spot. Kindly adjust the same for Futures.

Very Important – DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. Use sound Money Management with your Trading Plan and do not over leverage vis-a-vis your trading equity.

Have a Profitable Trading week ahead!

To your Boring Success!!!

Nifty Weekly Analysis for WS 20th Jan

Nifty started the past week with a big bang move with a range (high – Low) of 100 points. That would have allayed all the fears of Nifty going below 6100 and possibly below 6000. Whats more, Nifty opened above the levels given in my Weekly Analysis and touched a high of 6347 way above the 3rd target.

6350 in my mind is a crucial level. Nifty has to close and stay above this level if we are to see new highs. The big bang start of last could have prompted people to believe that Nifty could get 3rd time lucky. Sadly that was not to be. The Bears wrested control and had Nifty close at the 6260 level by Friday.

6126 – 6152 would continue to be a support zone for the Nifty as I have maintained in my previous posts. Any close below this and levels of 6000 odd cannot be ruled out. It does not take a great deal of common sense to note that Nifty is not able to breach highs. The Bears ram home with full power at these levels. Suffice to say the above 2 levels can offer neat trades for the observant Swing Trader.

As usual, the market will decide it’s course of action. All we need to do is follow what it does.

Nifty Weekly WS 20th jan

Nifty trading levels for the next week are as follows

Buy Above 6266 Tgt 1 – 6342, Tgt 2 – 6423, Tgt 3 – 6500

Sell Below 6266 Tgt 1 – 6185, Tgt 2 – 6110, Tgt 3 – 6028

Note: All levels are for Nifty Spot. Kindly adjust the same for Futures.

Very Important – DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. Use sound Money Management with your Trading Plan and do not over leverage vis-a-vis your trading equity.

Have a Profitable Trading week ahead!

To your Boring Success!!!

Nifty Weekly Analysis for WS 13th Jan

The past week was clearly a Bearish one for Nifty as described in my last week’s analysis. Notably the range (High – Low) of Nifty for the week was exactly 100 points. Nifty has closed the week below the intermediate Bull trend line which indicates bearishness at least for the start of the week.

The area between 6129 to 6152 continues to act as a strong support for Nifty. This is further corroborated by the fact that Nifty hit this area 3 times last week and bounced back. As long as Nifty manages to close above this level on a daily basis, we could see another pull back to the 6250 – 6260 levels. Close above these levels could catapult Nifty past 6300. Question in my mind is, how long can the bulls hold the fort?

If the bears manage to close Nifty below the 6130 level, then the next major support zone is between 5943 to 6000 levels. A sudden downside move in the Nifty to below 6000 could see it oscillate between these levels for sometime. I have my doubts if Nifty will go below 6000 levels but then you never know. As usual, the market will decide it’s course of action. All we need to do is follow what it does.

Nifty Weekly WS 13th Jan

Nifty trading levels for the next week are as follows

Buy Above 6183 Tgt 1 – 6227, Tgt 2 – 6283, Tgt 3 – 6327

Sell Below 6183 Tgt 1 – 6128, Tgt 2 – 6084, Tgt 3 – 6028

Note: All levels are for Nifty Spot. Kindly adjust the same for Futures.

Very Important – DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. Use sound Money Management with your Trading Plan and do not over leverage vis-a-vis your trading equity.

Have a Profitable Trading week ahead!

To your Boring Success!!!